NO THANKS. I'LL TAKE ANOTHER BANDWAGON

One of the biggest prospects in all of sports is the Washington National’s 18 year-old phenom, Bryce Harper. Harper signed a $9.9 million contract over 5 years, the biggest contract in Major League history for a non-pitcher coming out of the draft. Before I get into the meat of my thoughts, let me preface my views by saying Bryce Harper is an amazing talent. Harper’s talents and physical qualities make him any scout’s dream. That being said, I am going to wait a little bit longer before I jump on the Bryce Harper bandwagon. Most people I talk to have Harper hitting in the middle of the National’s order and breaking the homerun record before the kid takes one swing in a big league game.

            Here’s what I see when I look at Harper’s swing: a ridiculous amount of power with a MAX EFFORT SWING. If you have a chance, youtube hitters like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, or Chase Utley. All of these guys have an amazing amount of power but also have smooth, fluid swings that are seemingly effortless. If you really want to see an effortless yet explosive swing, youtube Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey may have had the prettiest left handed swing to ever slice through the air and connect with a baseball. Harper on the other hand looks like he may pull an oblique every time he lashes his bat through the zone. A max effort swing, aside from being less-aesthetically pleasing, presents problems for power hitters. But is it fair to compare an 18 year-old kid to some of the best hitters in the game like Pujols and A-Rod? ABSOLUTELY, IT’S FAIR! Bryce Harper is not your average 18 year-old who is getting used to being able to get into rated R movies by himself and buying tobacco without the help of his older friends for the first time! Bryce Harper is a $9.9 million investment! So yes, I’m being critical.

By the way, did the Nationals strike gold when playing in the National League East cellar the last three years? Washington is shelling out all kinds of cash to these young prospects. Remember when I said Harper’s $9.9 million contract was the most expensive contract for any non-pitcher coming out of the draft? Guess who signed the most expensive contract for a PITCHER out of the draft. Stephen Strasburg signed a $14.1 million contract for 4 years making the highest paid player in baseball that had (at that time) never thrown one pitch professionally. Besides Harper and Strasburg’s incredible talent at such a young age, they have one other commonality between them: their agent Scott Boras. Boras is a super-agent with the reputation of sucking every last cent out of an organization for a player’s contract. Dealing with Boras is like when you’re playing pickup basketball with your 5’8” to 6’1” friends and in walks the 6’6” guy who is redshirting on the local college basketball team. No matter how good you think your pick-up team is, the big guy is going to do whatever he wants on the court. Boras is going to do whatever he wants in the meeting room. Just to further make my point, before Harper set the contract record for a positional player coming out of the draft, Mark Teixeira was paid the most for any drafted, positional rookie ($9.5 million for 4 years). Mark Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras. 

Back to the swing, despite Harper’s ferocious swings, he struck out twice in his Spring Training debut. Both strikeouts were swinging. And both strikeouts were on changeups. A changeup to a left-handed hitting power guy is like a free throw to Shaquille O’Neal. (You would think after 18 years in the league, he would figure out how to make those. It is called a FREE throw). Changeups are often the toughest pitch for young hitters to adjust to. The reason? Pitchers usually do not develop solid changeups until they reach the professional level. Young hitters have never seen good changeups before. A hitter like Bryce Harper is even more susceptible to swing and miss when a pitcher pulls the string. He is so geared up to hit a fastball 658 feet that he does not give himself a chance to recognize a changeup when it’s thrown.

            A few guys I played with in college now play professional baseball. One of the pitchers I played with, who is now in the Orioles organization, talked to me about the amazing hand-eye coordination of the Dominican players. He said Dominicans could time up a 120 mph fastball but throw them a curveball and they have no chance. Bryce Harper has a similar issue. The upside about this problem is where the flaw lies. The flaw is in the approach, not the ability. If Harper can change his hitting style from chaos to a controlled aggression, he has a chance to be a phenomenal hitter. Some experts would say you cannot take away the aggressive approach from such a talented offensive player. I agree. I am not suggesting removing the aggressive nature from his swing, simply to channel it.

Granted, the only swings I have seen Harper take are the ones they show on Sportscenter and of course the unforgettable 500-foot blast at Tropicana Field (with an aluminum bat) that was made famous by youtube. BUT from what I have seen, it seems that Harper is on his way to being an all or nothing hitter. Honestly, there is nothing wrong with being an all or nothing hitter. Carlos Pena has made a good living out of it. The last three seasons, Pena has averaged over 32 homeruns with over 160 strikeouts. Only 47% of Pena’s hits with the Rays the last three years have been singles. Over half of his hits are extra-base hits (30% of his hits are homeruns). Swinging for the fences is a lucrative business. Pena’s three year contract with the Rays earned him over $8 million per year. Fun fact, Carlos Pena is represented by none other than Scott Boras. The irony!

The main point I am trying to make is that Bryce Harper is athletic enough, talented enough, and young enough to make the necessary adjustments and become the type of hitter he wants to be. Does he want to have the grace of a Griffey (future Hall of Famer) or the violently wild yet lucrative thrash of a Pena? Ask me in a few years and I may have the answer. As for now, when the Bryce Harper-lovers drive by and ask me if I want to hop on, I’ll say: No thanks. I’ll take another bandwagon.