ARGUING WITH THE BEST

Twitter has undoubtedly changed the way news spreads across the world. I first learn about nearly every major sports or world news story through twitter. Many critics of this newer version of social media have learned the value of “tweeting” and have changed their views to now embrace that stupid blue bird. I can’t even remember how I learned about major stories before I started using Twitter! Did I really wait for those single, weekly visits to CNN.com or ESPN.com? Surely, I didn’t wait for the six o’clock news or Sportscenter to learn all the breaking news in the world!

Twitter has revolutionized the way the media spreads information. But the list of Twitter’s capabilities and uses extends much further than uses of the media. You can follow your favorite celebrities with hopes of gaining insight as to what they are like off the field, court, stage, etc. The more “followers” you gain, the easier you can promote a blog like this one or some kind of promotion from work. You can receive inspirational quotes or Bible verses several times a day. With the newest version of Twitter, not only can you use direct links to the latest news story, but you are one click away from looking at what other people have tweeted about that particular story. And yes, if you’re that guy or that girl, you can tweet about what you had for lunch and how stoked you are about the CSI rerun that’s on TV (don’t be ashamed. I’ve done it).

The more I use Twitter, the more I enjoy its nuances from other social media. But the other day I learned by far the most engaging and unique capability that Twitter has the potential to bring to its users.

Twitter can allow you to have a CONVERSATION with celebrities that you admire.

Okay, here’s the situation.

Yesterday morning, I was looking through Twitter on my phone like I normally do countless times throughout the day. I saw a tweet from my favorite baseball writer/reporter, Buster Olney.

Buster Olney’s Original Tweet: Character clause is in MVP voting, too "...general character, disposition, loyalty and effort..." So if HOF voters use it, why not in MVP?

Recently, news stories surfaced that Milwaukee Brewers outfielder and 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun tested positive for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). According to some reports, Braun’s testosterone level was twice as high as the HIGHEST test ever recorded since that type of drug testing started in baseball.

I have a strong opinion in regard to PEDs, baseball awards, and the baseball Hall of Fame (HOF) so I decided to tweet back at Buster. I do not tweet at celebrities very often but occasionally I will with no expectation of a response. The following is what I tweeted to Buster Olney:

Me in response to Buster: Awards/Records are already tarnished. HOF is still sacred. No members of HOF have used steroids.

After I sent the tweet, I jumped in the shower in preparation to start my day. When I got out of the shower, I checked my phone and saw I had a message from twitter with the name “Buster” in it. I assumed someone had retweeted what I said or messaged me back and included Buster Olney’s twitter handle in the message. When I looked closer, I realized that the Senior Baseball Writer for ESPN Magazine and my favorite baseball writer, Buster Olney had tweeted me back!

I have never witnessed a 15-year old girl see Justin Bieber for the first time, but I imagine my reaction to Buster Olney tweeting me back was similar to that girl catching her first glimpse of Bieber.

I was so ecstatic that Buster Olney tweeted me back that it took me a few minutes to come back down to earth and get into argue mode. Little did I know that those first two tweets would turn into a discussion with Buster Olney that spanned over an hour and include over 20 tweets.

The following is the actual conversation I had with Buster Olney via Twitter. I have not edited or changed ANY of our tweets in ANY way.

(PEDs = Performance Enhancing Drugs. HOF = Hall of Fame)

Buster: You say no members of the Hall of Fame have used PEDs? Please present your proof.

Me: No HOFer has EVER tested positive for PEDs. Burden of proof is in revealing guilt.

Buster: OK, I'll flip it back to you: Has Roger Clemens tested positive? McGwire? Do you have an MLB positive test for Bonds?

Me: McGwire admitted guilt. Bonds admitted use of PEDs but said he was unaware it was illegal substance. By HOF standards- guilty

Me: jury ruled mistrial with Clemens. The evidence is enough for HOF to rule him guilty.

Buster: You say a mistrial is evidence of guilt? Really? So why hasn't Clemens been sentenced to jail?

Me: HOF vote is similar but not same as court of law. Reasonable doubt makes no difference. ANY doubt- then he's not a HOF.

Buster: So what about the HOFers who've admitted or been shown to use amphetamines throughout their careers?

Me: What HOFer has admitted that? If they have admitted, then take them out of HOF. Like I said HOF is sacred, pure, spotless

Buster: You say the Hall of Fame is spotless, pure? Have you read about Ty Cobb? Tris Speaker? Gaylord Perry breaking rules? Etc.?

Buster: Go back and read books/articles about HOFers from 1950-2000; you will find many references to their use of amphetamines.

Me: "speed" wont make you a HOF. Drugs that make pple bigger-stronger-faster is an issue. Adderall is an amphetamine. Not an issue

Buster: So let me get this straight: You are saying 'speed' is not a performance-enhancer, and is pure, as far as HOF is concerned?

Me: Speed will not make a good player great or a great player a HOFer. Bonds/McGwire type drugs took them to a new/unseen level.

Buster: If speed/ amphetamines ok for hall of famers, in your eyes, why are they now banned in virtually every sport?

Me: what were rules against them AT THE TIME? Can't punish someone for a new rule 20-30 years after the fact.

Buster: You just stepped into it: what were rules during McGwire's career?

Me: Specifically- I would have to research. McGwire admitted to using ILLEGAL steroids according to reports.

Buster: Besides, your premise is HOF is pure, clean; are you sticking with that, despite speed use, Cobb, Perry, etc.?

Me: Yes to my original premise. Speed not going to create a HOFer. Breaking rules like Cobb/Perry not going to create a HOF

Buster: And current HOFers have admitted amphetamine use that was illegal.

Me: To quote...well you: "please present your proof."

Me: amphetamines not banned in baseball until 2005. Players before ban cant be punished for something that was legal at the time.

Me: It was an honor/pleasure discussing this @Buster_ESPN. If you need me for Baseball Tonight or Sportscenter, you know my twitter handle :)

That was the discussion. I have never smiled the entire time I argued with someone until that Twitter, back-and-forth with Buster Olney. I feel like I put him in check-mate when I asked him to provide proof that current Hall of Famers have admitted to using illegal amphetamines that were illegal at the time of their use. I’ll admit, Buster may have more important things to do than argue with some guy on twitter so he couldn’t continue with the discussion.

That being said, I still feel like I won the argument. Because of my victory, I also feel that I am deserving of a “follow” from Buster Olney. I tweeted a message asking everyone to ask Buster to follow me, but my plan has not yet resulted in a celebrity follow.

If you have read the argument and believe I was victorious or at least had the upper hand, do me a favor and tweet @Buster_ESPN and ask him to follow @aaron_vargas.

Here's what I want you to take away from my story: if you don’t have Twitter, you should get an account. If you have Twitter, don’t be shy about tweeting at your favorite celebrities when you have something intelligent to say, because you never know when you’ll end up ARGUING WITH THE BEST.

THE "MAN" IN MANNING

You would be hard pressed to watch a sports talk show or listen to sports talk radio without hearing an NFL topic that is continuing to rise up and spark heated discussion: Peyton Manning. The former University of Tennessee standout had neck surgery prior to the 2011 season and has failed to play a single game for the Colts this year (I know you know this, I’m just setting things up). Subsequently, “struggling” isn’t quite a strong enough adjective to describe the Colts’ winless season thus far. But the painfully terrible 2011 season has the potential to create an incredibly positive outcome in Indianapolis… if the Colts use it correctly.

The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins are the only two winless teams left in the NFL. Since the Colts and Dolphins do not play each other at any point this season, neither team has shown any signs that they’ll be able to finish the season with a tally in the win column. The good part about being so laughably bad is that the worst team in the NFL will get the first pick in the NFL draft, and this is not one of the years with a watered down draft class especially with the availability of Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck (arguably the best college quarterback prospect in 20 years). ESPN has entitled the Colts and Dolphin’s “lose-win” situation as the “Suck-for-Luck” Sweepstakes.

Let’s just assume the Indianapolis Colts do “suck” enough to draft Andrew Luck. Here’s where the heated debate comes in. What do the Colts do with both Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning? I’m going to save you some time and NOT list every single choice the Colts have in this situation. Today I heard one of the Colts’ possible choices talked about on both Sportsnation and on Sportscenter. Collin Cowherd (Sportsnation) and Herm Edwards (Sportscenter) both said the COLTS SHOULD DRAFT ANDREW LUCK AND TRADE PEYTON MANNING. Now both Cowherd and Edwards are intelligent, credible ESPN personalities so after I thought long and hard about these two’s opinion to trade Peyton Manning, I finally came to the logical conclusion for their statements; Cowherd and Edwards were belligerently drunk and obviously have a drinking problem that can only be solved with extensive rehab and Jesus.

In all seriousness, trading away a lock for the Hall of Fame like Peyton Manning is an unnecessary and desperate risk that the Colts do not need to take. Now let me admit something before I get into the thick of my argument. I do not know the extent of Peyton’s neck injury (for the rest of this blog, I am going to refer to him as “Peyton” because like all 20 plus-year Tennesseans, I believe I am on a first name basis with Peyton Manning). The Colts may know something about Peyton’s neck injury that tells them he is going to have physical limitations that will not allow him to compete at the same level. Peyton has had three neck surgeries in the last 18 months, so the long-term damage his injury and surgeries have done may be more serious than anyone in the public actually knows. For the sake of my argumentative victory, let’s assume that Peyton will not have any extremely negative affects from surgery and he will be the same quarterback that picks apart opposing defenses.

There are two enormously overwhelming reasons the Colts SHOULD NOT trade Peyton if they draft Andrew Luck: 1. Predicting the potential of collegiate players, ESPECIALLY QUARTERBACKS, is an inexact science 2. Peyton has not only proved he is a winner, but he has proved he is one of the top quarterbacks to ever play the game.

I will begin with the inexact science of projecting the professional abilities of a college quarterback. Let’s take a look at the number one overall picks in the NFL draft the last 20 years. I am only choosing to look at the last 20 years because the NFL has evolved so much, especially the past 10 years. More and more teams are moving to the “pass heavy, throw the football 50 or more times a game” plan. Teams like the Patriots, Saints, and Colts (when they have Peyton) use short passes, screens, and draw plays as a running game as apposed to pounding the ball up the middle with a big, physical back. Why is this important? Because a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback can no longer throw the ball 20 times a game, hope for no turnovers, and expect to win a championship. The burden placed on an NFL quarterback in today’s game is ENORMOUS!

So, back to the NFL draft the last 20 years. In the last 20 NFL drafts, there have been 11 quarterbacks taken first overall.

2011 – Cam Newtong

2010 – Sam Bradford

2009 – Matthew Stafford

2007 – MYSTERY MAN (I’ll get to him later)

2005 – Alex Smith

2004 – Eli Manning

2003 – Carson Palmer

2002 – David Carr

2001 – Mike Vick

1998 – Peyton Manning

1993 – Drew Bledsoe

Only two of those 11 have led their teams to a Super Bowl victory. Ironically enough both of those quarterbacks have the last name of “Manning.” Eli Manning (drafted in 2004) led the New York Giants to a championship in Super Bowl XLII (versus Patriots) and Peyton Manning (drafted in 1998) led the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl XLI (versus Bears). Drew Bledsoe (drafted first overall in 1993) won a Super Bowl with the Patriots in 2001, but he was not the starter for the majority of the season due to injury. Some other guy named Brady took over and led the team under center.

Now agreeably, you can’t determine a quarterback’s greatness solely on the number of championships he has won. I believe the number of championships won is a huge factor in that argument but that’s a discussion for another time. I’ll also admit that Newton, Bradford, and Stafford are way too young to determine their impact on the NFL, so let’s dig a little bit deeper into these 11 first overall picks. All the players on the list above, from Cam Newton to Peyton Manning are at an age where they should still be in the NFL barring catastrophic injury (Bledsoe ran out of gas in his playing career, retiring after the 2006 season). Out of the ten “should-be-active” quarterbacks taken first overall the last 20 years, three are not starters (MYSTERY MAN, Carr, and Palmer). I’m not counting Palmer as a starter because the Bengals basically disowned the guy and Palmer threw three interceptions in his first game as a Raider.

Now let’s look at the seven quarterbacks who are starters in the NFL.

I have already mentioned that both Mannings have won a Super Bowl so both the Giants and Colts are happy with their picks.

Newton is looking like he has the tools to become very good and he’s going to run the offense in Charlotte for many years to come (he has been playing for money for years so there’s no added pressure there). Sorry Jimmy Clausen.

Stafford has helped put the Lions back on the map. Nice pick Detroit.

Sam Bradford has been out for a couple weeks with an ankle injury, but I have to say I have not been impressed with his performances. I feel comfortable saying I’m not the only one who is not very optimistic about Bradford becoming a star.

Michael Vick is by far one of the most athletic and exciting players to ever play the game of football. Despite his overwhelming athleticism, the inability to read a defense has proved to be detrimental to his ability to lead a team to the dominance of a Patriots or Colts (with Peyton). Not to mention he was drafted by the Falcons not the Eagles, but it’s not really Atlanta’s fault Vick went to prison. The jury is still out on how great Mike Vick is going to be.

Alex Smith by any old quarterback’s standard is an average to slightly above average quarterback. But let’s be honest, you can’t judge a first overall pick by any old quarterback’s standards. First overall pick’s are expected to lead teams to championships. In Smith’s career, he averages 174.9 yards per game and he has thrown 60 TDs and 55 INTs. By a first overall pick’s standards, Alex Smith is not a very good quarterback.

In review, out of the ten “should-be-active” quarterbacks who were taken first overall in the last 20 years, two have one Super Bowls (Manning and Manning), two are going to be extremely good quarterbacks (Newton and Stafford), two we are not yet sure on (Vick and Bradford), two are bad quarterbacks (Palmer and Carr), and that leaves one: the MYSTERY MAN.

This guy is in a class of his own. He is not on the same level as any of the quarterbacks I have talked about so far. If you know football and the NFL draft you know the guy I’m talking about. I am about to say a name that should TERRIFY the Colts whenever they start thinking about drafting Luck and trading Peyton. I am about to drop a bomb in this argument: JAMARCUS RUSSELL…. BOOM!

I wish I could cue a video montage of Russell’s deplorable NFL career with intense music in the background. I would then show video of his amazing career at LSU with happy music and abruptly switch back to intense music and Russell throwing interceptions and fumbling in the NFL (I do have lots of free time now so stay tuned. I may consider making that video).

I am not going to mention in detail Ryan Leaf, who may be a bigger bust than Russell. Leaf was not a first overall pick. I am going to stick to my guns and only discuss Jamarcus Russell who was picked first overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2007.

First let’s go to the happy times in Russell’s playing career when he was quarterbacking at LSU. He won the starting job as a sophomore in Baton Rouge. His first year as a starter, Russell threw for 2,443 yards, 15 TDs, and completed 60% of his passes. Numbers were solid, but not great, yet Russell’s size (6’5” 265 lbs) and arm strength still had scouts and LSU fans interested. Russell’s junior season he threw for 3,129 yards, 28 TDs, and only 8 INTs. Russell also led the Bayou Bengals to a 41-14 Sugar Bowl whipping of Notre Dame, where Russell took home MVP honors. That December, Russell chose to forgo his last year at LSU and enter into the NFL draft.

Scouts were drooling over this big guy’s size and arm strength. ESPN football analyst John Clayton was quoted as saying that Russell’s size and strength were “hard to pass up on at number one [overall pick in the draft].” The Raiders did not pass up the opportunity to draft Russell and four years later, they probably wish they had passed him up.

In the equivalent of about 2 seasons (31 games), Russell’s numbers as the quarterback for the Oakland Raiders are horrendous. He only completed 52 percent of his passes, threw only 18 TDs while throwing 24 INTs which drops his career passer rating to a 65.2 (those of you who are not familiar with passer ratings, 65 is not good. Scratch that. 65 is terrible!) In 2009, Russell threw only 3 TDs and 11 INTs while putting together a passer rating of 50 (the worst passer rating for an NFL starter in over ten years).

Now, I don’t mention Jamarcus Russell to make fun of him (well, maybe I do a little. Especially because he held out prior to his first year as a Raider and then went on to put together the pitiful numbers I just showed you. I really dislike players who hold out and then can’t show out. Cough, cough… Chris Johnson… cough. But anyway, the point I am trying to make is that no matter how smart a team’s scouts are, no matter how advanced the physical tests and analysis is on a player, you simply cannot predict with all certainty the ability of a collegiate player when he comes to the NFL. The National Football League is a completely different animal than college football.

In 2004, you may remember reading or hearing about a story of a man named Ashley Revell. Mr. Revell was a 32-year-old man who spent all the money he had ($135,300) on a game of roulette. If you are not familiar with roulette, it is a simple game. There is a metal ball that you spin around on a wheel, which is divided by small spaces of red or black with different numbers. You bet on a color or number or both and if the ball lands in the area you bet on, you win money depending on the odds. Mr. Revell bet ALL of his money that the ball would land on a red space. And it did. Mr. Revell walked away with double the money he came into the game with.

Betting all of your money on red or black in a game of roulette is similar to drafting a quarterback first overall. It’s a coin flip. You just do not know how good the quarterback is going to be. You just do not know if you’re going to walk away with double your money or empty pockets and a very awkward conversation with your wife. If the Colts are to draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton, it would not be like betting all your money on red in roulette. It would be dumber. Why? BECAUSE YOU HAVE PEYTON MANNING!

The Colts drafting Luck and trading Manning would be like a millionaire defense attorney betting all the money he had on a game of roulette to try to double his fortune. YOU’RE ALREADY A MILLIONAIRE! WHY DO YOU WANT MORE MONEY! It would be like a man with a model as a wife, looking over at a SUPER-model and being like “wow, she’s gorgeous. Maybe I should marry her instead.” YOU ALREADY HAVE A GORGEOUS WIFE! THIS SUPER MODEL MAY BE ATTRACTIVE BUT SHE MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO LIVE WITH! WHAT ARE YOU THINKING!?

I do not understand why people believe the Colts should trade away a proven champion and risk drafting Luck. Yes, Peyton is on the tail end of his career, BUT he’s still good. Yes, the Colts need help on the defensive side of the ball, BUT not at the expense of Peyton Manning. Defensive coordinators are TERRIFIED of playing Peyton Manning. You may hear them on the interviews the week before where they say some clichéd response like, “Well Peyton’s a great quarterback and we’re excited to face that challenge. We’re gonna work hard this week and see what we can do.” BULL! Defensive coordinators are not excited to face the challenge of Peyton Manning. The entire week leading up to a game against a Peyton-led Indianapolis Colts team, defensive coordinators wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat as the terrifying echo of Peyton barking audibles disappears into the night!

Okay, that’s enough with the emotional outbursts. Allow me to get back to logic. One of the huge arguments in getting rid of or trading Manning is that the Colts need some serious help on defense. This is true. Here is something that is also true, the Colts ALWAYS need help on defense. The Colts have eight of last year’s eleven starters on defense. It’s not exactly a completely new squad. Here’s what the Colts don’t have. They don’t have Peyton Manning using every second of the play clock and controlling the football for 40 minutes a game. On average this season, the Colts opposition has the football for ten more minutes than Indy does (Colts- 24:54, Opposition- 35.05). If you look at previous seasons, the Colts time of possession is actually fairly even, but the point is the Colts defense has to be on the field for five more minutes of game time than usual per game. Not to mention the added pressure the defense has this year the entire time they are on the field because they know the offense is not going to be able to score or comeback and win a football game.

Peyton Manning is by far the most important piece to any team in the NFL. Want me to prove it? The best three quarterbacks in the game are commonly said to be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. In 2008, Tom Brady was lost at the start of the Patriots season with a knee injury. Matt Cassell stepped in and won eleven games with the Pats, narrowly missing out on the playoffs (New England finished 11-4). Granted, Matt Cassell is better than Curtis Painter and an aged Kerry Collins but the Patriots won ELEVEN games. The Colts will be lucky to win ONE game without Peyton Manning. I would argue that Brees is close to as important to the Saints as Peyton is to the Colts. If Brees got hurt, the Saints would struggle with as much as that game plan is built to throw the ball and not play defense.

So what am I proposing? The Colts should pass up one of the best quarterback prospects the last 20 years? Absolutely not. Draft Andrew Luck, because he will have one of the best quarterback coaches, maybe in the history of the NFL. Draft Luck. Keep Peyton. Peyton doesn’t even have to go far out of his way to help teach Luck. As long as the kid stays attached to the hip of Peyton, and watches what he does, looks at the film that Peyton studies, he is going to become a much better quarterback and learn aspects and techniques of the game that no one else could teach him.

If this type of scenario sounds familiar, you are probably thinking of 2005 when the Green Bay Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers in the first round despite still having the iron man Brett Favre. Three seasons after Rodgers was drafted, Favre left Green Bay and started his saga. Despite my dislike for the way that Favre went back and forth with several teams, he could still play into his forties and he’s an amazing athlete and football player. Although Favre was slinging the football around the field for other teams, Rodgers and the Packers won a Super Bowl last year.

Some people believe Peyton would not take kindly to the Colts drafting Luck. Some people believe Peyton would demand a trade if the Colts draft the stud out of Stanford. Here’s what some people do not understand. Peyton Manning is not like you or me. If the company that you or I work for, hired a younger person as a back up for us, we would quickly feel uncomfortable and request a transfer if possible. Peyton is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play. He’s not going to run out of Indianapolis with his tail between his legs because some young superstar comes riding into town. If I had to guess, if the Colts do draft Andrew Luck, this will be Peyton’s mindset, “Wow. Guys in the front office are spending a lot of money on a SECOND STRING quarterback.” Peyton is the Colts quarterback. That will not have an immediate change if they draft Luck.

Here’s something we can all agree on. No player likes to leave his team or leave the game before he is ready. That is going to happen to Peyton Manning. His neck injury, while I do not believe will take huge affect in the next two or three years, I do believe the surgeries and neck problems will shorten his career. Around the time when Peyton slows to the point where he cannot compete at the same level or it is too dangerous to compete at the same level, will be the same time when Andrew Luck will be ready to take the wheel and steer his own ship.

Here’s what I want you to take away from this blog. Don’t try to double your money in a game of roulette when you already have enough to live comfortably. Don’t go looking for a more beautiful wife when you already have a gorgeous one that you love. And don’t trade away one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game in hopes that a 22-year-old kid can lead your team to a Super Bowl.

Draft Luck. Keep Peyton. Because Peyton puts THE “MAN” IN MANNING.

IN DEFENSE OF JETER

            Defense wins championships. Sports fans, coaches, and players use this phrase, cliché, or mantra in almost every sport. Whether there is universal truth in the statement “defense wins championships” or not, baseball seems to be a sport where pitching and defense is inarguably the most important piece to a championship puzzle. The New York Yankees have won an unprecedented 27 World Series Championships in the organization’s existence… excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth…

            Ok I’m better. Despite my extreme hatred for the New York Yankees, their dominance as a franchise is undeniable. Baseball fans across the country either hate them or love them. In the last fifteen years, the Yankees have been to the World Series 7 times and won the title 5 times. One of the common elements for the Pinstripers these past 15 years has been Derek Jeter. I think a quote from Will Ferrell’s movie, “Anchorman,” accurately describes my feelings for Jeter. Remember at the end of Anchorman when Ron Burgundy (Will Ferrell) is climbing up the ladder out of the bear pit? Wes Mantooth (Vince Vaughn) grabs the ladder in what seems to be an internal battle as to whether he should push Burgundy, his biggest news rival, back down into the bear pit or let him live. Mantooth looks Burgundy in the eyes and says, “Deep down in my stomach, with every inch of me, I pure, straight hate you! But, damn it do I respect you.” I know where Wes Mantooth is coming from. I have felt his pain. I have had to control myself from drop kicking my TV on several occasions when Derek Jeter has come up with a game-winning RBI but damn it do I respect him.

The Yankee captain and shortstop is going to be enshrined in the walls of the Hall of Fame when his career is all said and done. He has an uncanny ability to come up with the huge hit late in the game that makes all Yankee-haters like myself want to ram our heads through the nearest wall. Jeter’s defense seems to be just as glamorous. Baseball players across the nation (I think across the nation. I know every team I have played on) have coined the term “Jeter-it” when an infielder backhands a baseball, jumps to his feet, and twists his body in the air to make the throw to the necessary base. The Gold Gloves, the unreal defensive plays like the jump throws, and many more of Jeter’s defensive abilities are why I was bewildered at one of my friend’s statements to me a few months ago.

Lucas Harry and Lance Rorex, two of my former teammates, were arguing about something when I walked into our locker room. Rorex saw me walk in (recognized the fact that I am always up for verbal battle) and said, “Vargie come listen to what Harry thinks!” Lucas Harry, straight faced and serious, looked me in the eye and said, “Derek Jeter is a TERRIBLE defensive shortstop.”

My first thought was we have to get Harry to the nearest hospital because he was clearly overdosing on some kind of drug. Once I realized his statement was not a result of severe substance abuse, I went into argue mode. Lots of my friends refer to me as Skip Bayless (the elderly analyst on ESPN’s show “1st and 10”) because, on occasion, I will take the outlandish side to an argument purely for the chance to argue with someone. In this argument, I wasn’t going to take the eccentric side. I was actually going to defend Derek Jeter’s defense (no pun intended, seriously I didn’t mean to say it like that). I heard the arguments about Jeter’s defense before but arguing against the fact that the 7-time Gold Glover is a “terrible” defensive shortstop was not going to be difficult. I threw out the number of Gold Gloves Jeter has won, the highlight real plays, and the fact that a five-time World Series champion team could not have won that many championships and been that dominant with a “terrible” defensive shortstop (Shortstop is often seen as the most important position on the field). Harry rebutted by referring to an article that analyzed Jeter’s defensive ability. In typical nerd fashion, I went home and read the article.

The article entitled “Jeter vs. Everett” by Bill James can be found in a book called The Fielding Bible. James’ writing is filled with stats and numbers that make it slightly monotonous to read so I will try to simplify his arguments. If you want to read the actual article, go to this URL: http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp

Most of the article is based around the comparison between Derek Jeter and former Houston Astro’s shortstop Adam Everett. According to the observational study referred to in the article, Everett was one of the best defensive shortstops in 2005. I still find that hard to believe especially since in the ten years Everett has been in the big leagues, he has only played in over 110 games four times and has never even come close to being considered for a Gold Glove. Despite my first skeptical thought, the article revealed some extremely interesting ideas and maybe even FACTS about Derek Jeter’s defense in 4 major arguments.

The first point in the article was based on Baseball Info Solutions observational analysis of shortstops’ defensive play in the 2005 season. It is important for you to realize that this analysis has almost nothing to do with typical fielding percentages or error counts. In 2005 Jeter and Everett’s defensive stats were almost identical. Jeter had 15 errors with a .979 fielding percentage and Everett had 14 errors with a .978 fielding percentage. Here’s how the process worked. Baseball Info Solutions analysts (AKA Super-nerds who have nothing better to do than micro-analyze stuff like this. These analysts would make Buster Olney and Peter Kurkjian both look like a modern day Fonzie) broke the baseball diamond down into 263 vectors and defined every GROUNDBALL as either softly hit, medium hit, or hard hit depending on the velocity of the groundball towards the infielders. For example (I completely made this example up), a medium hit groundball in vector 17 (directly at a shortstop) was converted to an out 95% of the time. Baseball Info Solutions looked at every groundball that was hit in the 30 MLB teams’ 162 game seasons. Yeah. Told you. They are super-nerds. If a groundball was converted into an out 50% of the time but Jeter or Everett missed this type of groundball, that is considered a missed play. If Jeter or Everett gets an out on a groundball that was fielded by a shortstop under 50% of the time, it is considered a “plus play.”

The study showed that Jeter had 19 “plus plays” and 93 “missed plays” while Everett had 59 “plus plays” and 41 “missed plays.” The analysts covered a few of their holes as all super-nerds should be able to do. Just because Jeter or Everett had a “missed play” doesn’t mean that type of groundball was fielded cleanly 100% of the time by other shortstops. Some of their “missed plays” could have only been fielded 52% of the time. Remember, this is an OBSERVATIONAL study. These guys actually watched every groundball and FLYBALL. After making adjustments for plays that were close to 50% and balls hit in the air, analysts determined there was a 40-play separation in favor of Everett. In other words, Jeter allowed 40 more base runners than Adam Everett in 2005.

The next point in the article is not a sound argument and is completely unusable in this discussion. Basically, the next study counts the number of hits that land or go through the shortstop’s area. The number of hits that get through the shortstop position is not solely dependent on the shortstop. A rocket through the six-hole (between the third baseman and shortstop) goes through the shortstop’s area but has nothing to do with any kind of defensive deficiency. It has more to do with a pitcher leaving a fastball over the heart of the plate for the hitter to crush. This particular study does not consider whether or not an average shortstop would make a specific play, therefore the article’s second argument gets the Vargas stamp of DISAPPROVAL. 

            The third point in the article is not fully explained but seems to have some grounds for making a solid point. Another company, not Baseball Info Solutions, used “Relative Range Factor” to analyze shortstops. Basically the study considers, plays made per 9 innings, pitching staff tendencies to hit their spots, surrounding defenders, and makes adjustments for the strikeout and groundball tendencies of each team. I have no idea what the opposition’s strikeouts have to do with the defensive ability of a shortstop. Like I said, this study is not fully explained. The conclusion in the study was that although Jeter was considered close to average in the 2005 season, he was almost always found near the bottom of the league when it came to Relative Range.

            John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, conducted the last study. The study is very similar to the Baseball Info Solutions analysis. Dewan used the same 262 vector system and velocity grade (soft, medium, hard) to analyze groundballs. If a groundball was fielded by a shortstop 50% of the time, that particular groundball was in shortstops “responsibility zone.” Jeter fielded groundballs in his responsibility zone 79% of the time and made 26 plays outside of that zone. Everett made plays in the responsibility zone 86% of the time and made 78 plays outside of that zone.

            Congratulations you made it through the super-nerd but simplified jargon to analyze Jeter’s defense. Please take a break and towel off from the mental sweat that you’re going through right now. I now my brain hurt after reading the article.

            After reading the article, I decided to do a little further research myself. There is a defensive stat in baseball that uses similar methods to analyze a player's defensive value. Forgive the lack of creativity for the name used by Major League Baseball: Total Zone- Total Fielding Runs Above Average per 1,200 innings. The stat shows how many runs a defensive player is worth. If the player has Total Zone of 10, then that player saves 10 runs from scoring in 1,200 innings compared to the average shortstop. A Total Zone of negative 10 means that player allows 10 more runs to score than the average shortstop because of his deficiencies on defense. A Total Zone of zero is the average score for a Major League shortstop. In Jeter’s fifteen-year career, he has only had a positive Total Zone rating 4 times. If you throw out Jeter’s first year in the big leagues where he only played in 15 games and made two errors, Jeter’s worst Total Zone rating is negative 21. His career Total Zone rating is negative 8. Although none of these stats fully make an argument that Jeter is a TERRIBLE defensive shortstop, they do make labeling Jeter a BELOW AVERAGE defensive shortstop pretty tough to argue against.

Here is my response. One big problem with these studies, especially the studies in the “Jeter vs. Everett” article, is that they do not consider defensive positioning. The article admits that Jeter shifts his positioning on the field much more than Everett does, but fails to admit the importance of this fact. Jeter is by far one of the most baseball savvy players in the Major Leagues. His experience and knowledge of the game are the reasons he is able to strategically position himself on the part of the infield where he believes he is most likely to field a groundball. Sometimes he is incorrect. Sometimes a pitcher misses his spot or a hitter inside-outs a pitch (hits a pitch inside to the opposite field) and crosses up the defense which does not allow Jeter to reach a ground ball the other shortstops could field because they did not shift their initial position.

My biggest issue with Total Zone and the article on Jeter is that Total Zone and the studies in the article are only analyzing Jeter’s RANGE. There is so much more to a shortstops defensive value than his left to right range. Footwork, hands, double-play turn speed, and positioning are some of the physical traits that affect a shortstop’s ability. Maybe more importantly, good instincts, leadership, communication with other fielders, and composure are intangibles that are all essential parts to having a good shortstop. Jeter’s intangibles are almost unmatched at the shortstop position or at any other position.

Let me give you an example of Jeter’s extraordinary instincts and composure. Think back to October 2001. The Yankees are playing on the road against the Oakland Athletics in game 3 of the American League Division Series. Mike Mussina and Barry Zito are in an epic pitchers’ duel. The score is 1-0 Yankees in the bottom of the 7th inning with 2 outs. Jeremy Giambi is on first with Terrence Long at the plate. Long hits a line drive down the first base line that gets all the way to the right field corner.

Pause from envisioning this moment so I can explain something. When a ball is hit down the right field corner with a runner or runners on base, the infielders lineup for a “double-cut.” In this case, the second baseman and the first baseman are aligned with home plate so they can receive the throw from the outfielder and to try throw out the runner attempting to score from first. The shortstop is generally nowhere near this relay throw.

Okay let’s flashback to October 2001. The ball is in the right field corner; Giambi is chugging around third with hopes of scoring the tying run. The relay throw comes from right fielder Shane Spencer but he severely overthrows the double-cut. It sails over the heads of Alfonso Soriano (second baseman) and Tino Martinez (first baseman). Then like Superman swooping into to save Louis Lane, Jeter comes flying towards the ball, catches it on a hop and flips it to Jorge Posada who applies the tag to Giambi who foolishly did not slide. Yankees still lead 1-0.

Come back to present day to analyze the play. If you want to see the play for yourself go to the following URLs: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3134880

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mq_kcKHBCcA (skip ahead to around 1 minute)

INSTINCTS. In the second video, the youtube clip, I want you to see how far Jeter comes to cut that ball off. Watch where he starts running from: the infield dirt! In that situation, 99% of the shortstops would be hanging out around second base as spectators of the tying run scoring. Jeter is not like 99% of shortstops. He realized the throw was not only going to be over the heads of the double-cut but he realized it didn’t have enough velocity to get to the plate. He took off to cut the throw and make the flip to the plate even though it wasn’t the textbook play to make. INSTINCTS.

COMPOSURE. In the first link, the mlb.com video, there are a few key components. I want you to focus on the ball after it hits the ground before Jeter catches it. Many people may argue that Jeter’s back-hand flip was completely unnecessary. I say, watch the video. The ball was obviously not going to make it to the plate. The second component is the accuracy of the flip. The ball goes directly to Posada’s glove hand side which enables the catcher to quickly make a tag on the runner. By the way, bravo Jorge Posada for holding on to the ball: not an easy tag to make. Imagine the magnitude of the situation! Game 3 of a one run game in the ALDS, thousands of people in attendance watching, maybe millions watching on TV, and Jeter makes a perfect flip. COMPOSURE.

            So after the super-nerd analysis of vectors and range factors, flashbacks to an amazing play, and sarcastic babble, what is my overall rating of Derek Jeter’s defensive abilities? Here is how I break it down. Jeter’s PHYSICAL abilities as a defensive shortstop are below average. His range is severely limited and his arm strength is nothing to brag about. However, his intangibles as a defensive shortstop are off the charts. You will be hard pressed to find another shortstop as savvy as Derek Jeter. He is a composed, instinctive, and hard-nosed field general.

HARD-NOSED: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZsO4dOddaQ

            Overall, his unmatchable intangibles make up for his lack of range and arm strength. I give Derek Jeter a defensive rating of SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

            That being said, Derek Jeter is one of the greatest all-around shortstops to ever play the game. The championships he has brought to New York (gag-gag), the plays he has made, the clutch hits, and career stats will add to nothing short of a Hall of Fame career. For those reasons and the fact that I secretly have a huge amount of respect for Jeter, I decided to let him climb out of the bear’s pit and not push him back down to his death just like Wes Mantooth did for Ron Burgundy. For all you people who label Derek Jeter a “terrible” defensive shortstop, I wrote this blog for you. I wrote this blog IN DEFENSE OF JETER.

For those of you who just took that argumentative beat down, here is a video that might make you feel better. Actually, everyone should watch it because it’s pretty funny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI-0JKX_E9I

Do it for Him

Yesterday, I played in my last meaningful college baseball game. We have four more games on the schedule but they don’t mean anything for our season. We lost two straight games in the conference tournament; including a double-digit beating we took from Catawba to essentially end our season. I’ve still yet to shed a tear and I don’t really know why I haven’t cried. Last year I balled my eyes out when we lost at conference tournament. I was completely distraught to see some of my best friends finish out their playing careers one year ago. I guess I am refusing to let reality sink in, or maybe I know I still have a few more times to put on a jersey and walk onto that grassy diamond. I am sure the last game I play; there will be no chance to hold in the emotion.

            My senior season did not turn out the way I envisioned it. In fact, my last season to play baseball has been by far the most frustrating baseball year of my life. After our first loss in conference tournament I tweeted the question “What do you do when hard work refuses to pay off?” I didn’t know the answer until today. But before I get to the answer to that question, let me give you a glimpse of how my senior season has gone. I’m usually not this negative or this concerned about telling people about my problems. After all, people have their own problems. They don’t want to hear about mine. But I believe and hope that by telling people about the last 10 months of my life, they will learn a thing or two.

            The drama began last August, right before I came back to school. I was having shoulder pain that traced all the way back to the previous season at Carson-Newman. I thought time off from throwing would make the pain go away, but I was completely wrong. An MRI revealed a torn labrum in my throwing shoulder. The labrum is similar to the meniscus in the knee except it’s in your shoulder. The tear makes throwing extremely painful and almost always requires surgery to fix. In my case, I needed surgery to repair the damage. The problem was the recovery time for surgery would have me ready to play dangerously close to the start of the season IF everything with rehab went according to plan. One minor set back during rehab and I could miss my senior season of baseball. Here were my options: 1. Have the surgery and risk getting set back and missing my last year to play baseball. 2. Postpone surgery. Rehab my shoulder and play my senior year with the tear in my arm. Now for those of you who don’t know, I play second base. You don’t need a Rafael Furcal-like arm to play second. Plus, the idea of missing my senior season terrified me so much that I chose to rehab my shoulder and play the season with the tear.

            I rehabbed and received treatment for the injury almost every day from the time I got back to school to the day our season ended (special thanks to my athletic trainer Misty Hudgins for dealing with me the entire year!). The strengthening exercises allowed me to get through the fall and play in the spring. I had to sit out more games that I would have liked during the season to give my shoulder the necessary rest, but I was able to play in the majority of the games. I often compared myself to a man in a gunfight with limited ammo. I learned certain tricks to conserve my limited ammunition (throws). When fielding a groundball, I would shuffle my feet several times before throwing. The shuffles would allow me to get closer to my target and the momentum allowed me to use my body weight to throw which in turn, took pressure off of my shoulder. Double-play turns were by far the most painful throws I had to make. I have never been stabbed before but I imagine being stabbed in the shoulder would have a similar feel to the double-play throws I had to make during season. Luckily my shortstop Troy Zawadski either touched second base himself whenever possible or booted the groundball so I didn’t have to throw (just kidding Troy. I love you man!). The point is, I had to make all kinds of adjustments throughout the season so I could play.

            The good part about the season despite my injury was that I was able to play. That’s what I wanted. However, a huge negative of the season was the success I had… or lack there of. I am embarrassed to even put this out in the public. I spent most of the year hoping people wouldn’t look at the stat sheet online. I usually don’t really care about stats or what people think about my abilities as a player, but my average was so devastatingly low that I couldn’t help but worry. I hit under 150 my senior year in college. I’m not going to make excuses for my poor offensive performance. I’ll say it was as simple as slumps, bad luck, and at times shaky confidence combining to make this the statistically worst offensive year of my life… literally. I envisioned myself riding off into the sunset at the end of my college career. After hitting below 150, it was more like an ugly stumble into a grayish evening. I wish I could say the team had great success despite my struggles, but the team finished under 500 for the first time since I have been at Carson-Newman. To our credit, despite one of the worst starts imaginable, the team rallied back and made it to the conference tournament. We all showed true character and resilience in the way we battled around the adversity we faced early in the year. Our team truly was made up of guys with amazing amounts of heart, character, perseverance, and intestinal fortitude. I love all my guys I played with for that.

            But enough with the “warm fuzzies” (as my coach Tom Griffin would put it). In summary, I played my last year hurt and had LITERALLY the worst offensive season of my life. I even hit better my freshman year of high school when I weighed about as much as a Beanie Baby. Needless to say, the last 6 months or so have been extremely tough for me. Baseball has been an enormous chunk of my life for about 18 years now. It’s been incredibly tough to see the final chapter of my playing career fizzle out the way it did. So what did I learn? I know the anticipation is rising to read what I learned but hold on a little bit longer. Before I reveal the lesson my last year taught me, I have to make another confession about one of my flaws as a person. My entire life I have been the guy that 99% of the time, people watching or not, I make the right decision. Hard work, honesty, dedication, and the right choices have been staples of my life. I’m not saying I haven’t made mistakes or bad choices. I have made lots of bad choices. I wish I could take some of those bad decisions back. But for the most part, 99% of the time, I do the right thing. The flaw?... I believed I deserved something for it. I have never verbally told anybody that belief which makes it weird that I am choosing to make that revelation on an Internet blog! (I confuse myself sometimes). I don’t think I ever actually admitted it to myself. But I believed because I work hard and do the right thing, I deserve something special.

            Here is what I learned: you are not owed anything in life. Neither God, nor the World owes you anything for your hard work or right choices. Now let me pause, because right now you’re probably thinking what a pessimistic, cynical, evil person for making me read two pages to try to teach me such a depressing lesson. The lesson for me would have stopped there if I had not made by far the best decision of my life. Two and a half years ago I accepted Jesus Christ as my Lord and Savior. If I had not made that decision, the lesson I learned this year would have stopped with the statement I made earlier. I would have started to believe there is no reason to work hard or to make good choices because you do not receive anything in return for doing so. I may have completely changed the type of person I was for the worse. But with Christ in my heart, I know and realize that I may not receive the earthly rewards I want and desire. BUT I will receive the best reward ever: the eternal reward of Heaven. By working hard and doing the right thing, I am giving God the glory with my life. Now, don’t misconstrue what I am saying. I am not saying that good choices and acting the right way will get you to Heaven. Good works alone will not grant you eternal life. Faith in Christ is what counts.

            I want to be successful in life and it’s completely okay to have lofty goals for yourself. I am simply saying and pleading you to realize, no matter how amazing the accomplishment, no matter how much money, fame, or popularity you gain by achieving your goals, the rewards are not worth as much as the reward for giving God the glory with your life. I may have told you about that idea before this past year, but I don’t think I truly believed it until now. I wanted to hit 300 this year. I wanted to have the best year of my life on the field. Did I deserve to have that kind of year? Who knows. I man much wiser than me once said, “God doesn’t treat us the way we DESERVE to be treated. God treats us the way we NEED to be treated.” I NEEDED to learn this lesson. Whether I deserved it or not, it really doesn’t matter. Because the truth of the matter is, we don’t want what we deserve. As human beings, we don’t deserve very much. One of the lyrics in Lecrae’s song entitled Boasting says, “God has never been obligated to give us life/ If we fought for our rights, we’d be in hell tonight.” Lecrae is absolutely right.

            Again I want to make sure my message is clear. I am not saying that working hard won’t get you what you want. Hard work and good choices can ABSOLUTELY allow you to achieve great things in life. I have achieved some amazing things already in life because of the choices I have made and the work I have put in. But don’t be discouraged when you don’t receive the earthly rewards that you were expecting because the eternal reward will be so much sweeter than anything you could obtain in this life (my translation of 2 Corinthians 4:17-18).

            We are all blessed. Whether you believe in Him or not, God has given out so many blessings to us. Cherish all the good things in your life, because they are blessings. I have so many reasons to be thankful. I have two parents that would literally do ANYTHING for me. I have a brother who will support me in whatever I do. I have made countless friends that I know will always have my back. And those are just the relationships I am blessed with. The list would go on forever if I told you every way I am blessed. I may have hit far below the average I wanted to achieve my last year of playing baseball, but that’s okay.

I don’t know what Heaven is going to be like but I can dream. In my dream when I’m in heaven, there’s going to be a baseball season. In that season, I’m going to hit around 456 with 12 triples. I know God isn’t big on greed so I’m only going to hit two homeruns (I always thought taking 4 bases at one time is SO GREEDY!). And I know God isn’t big on stealing but I think he’ll forgive me for the 137 bases I steal when I’m in Heaven!

            So thank you God, for teaching me this lesson about earthly rewards. I used to think I was owed a reward for making good decisions. Now I have learned otherwise. I’m going to continue making the right choice not for the earthly reward and not for a reward that is OWED to me. God will undeservingly reward us because of his love, grace, and mercy. He works in mysterious ways. He works in ways that we don’t want. But in the end, He works in ways to make us stronger. So to answer my question, what do you do when hard work refuses to pay off? You keep working hard. You keep doing the right thing. It WILL pay off and probably already has. If you don’t get the worldly rewards you were expecting, stay the course. Because the reward for giving God the glory with your life will be so much sweeter than anything in this life. Keep working hard. Keep making the right decisions. If not for you, then do it for Him.

OPENING DAY BOLD PREDICTION

March Madness coming to a close, the extended hours of daylight, and winter finally making its merciful exit can only mean one thing: Baseball Opening Day! The six month, 162-game marathon is less than one week away. Forget birthdays, Halloween, Christmas, or New Years; Opening Day is my favorite holiday. No more discussion of big player contracts or expectations of rookie phenoms (for the moment). It’s time to talk about the teams and which ones will get through the first 162 games and be lucky enough to play a few more in October.

I started writing this blog with the intention to preview each of the divisions in the big leagues and pick each division’s winner. I started with the National League East and found myself so engaged with this division that I didn’t want to delve into the matchups in other portions of the Majors. The NL East may be the most intriguing divisions in baseball. It’s because of two teams and here is why.

NL EAST

            It would be impossible to discuss the NL East without mentioning the 1-2-3-4 punch that is the Phillies starting rotation. Many fans and analysts believe the Phillies bought their ticket to October with the signing of Cliff Lee. Frankly, that’s a hard point to argue. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels can all be legitimately described as “aces.” Joe Blanton, the fifth starter, is kind of like the backup quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts (yeah, I don’t know his name either). The backup’s job is to hold field goals and extra points and maybe hold Peyton’s helmet every now and then. His job is not unimportant but it does go unnoticed. As long as Blanton’s win-loss record isn’t as gaudy as 18-3 or as morbid as 3-18, his work this season will be skimmed over faster than the written articles in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition.

            You would be as safe predicting the Phillies winning the NL East as you would be predicting it’s NOT going to rain in Southern California. As for me, I see storm clouds rolling into the Los Angeles area. LA, on average, receives rainfall 35 days per year (9.6% of 365 days). I see this prediction having a 9.6% chance of being correct: the Atlanta Braves will win the NL East and push the Phillies to a Wild Card spot and here’s why:

The Phillies are getting old. The average age of the Phillies’ positional starters is 32 years old. By normal societal standards, 32 is still extremely young. By Major League Baseball standards, 32 years old is considered, at best, post-prime years. The Major League season is a physical and emotional grind that few people can truly appreciate. As a 22 year old kid, my body gets tired and sore after a 50 game college season. Imagine the aches and pains a 30-plus year old man feels after playing 162 games in 180 days! The Phillies will wear down.

             The Phillies aren’t quite old enough to throw in any arthritis jokes, but the “seasoned veterans” have had injury problems in the past. Jimmy Rollins is still a talented player, but he is not the same dominant force that won the NL MVP award in 2007. Rollins has failed to hit over 250 the past two years. Last year’s struggles were due mainly to the aging shortstop’s hamstring and foot injuries that limited him to 88 games. If Jimmy Rollins can’t serve in the catalyst spot due to injury, Shane Victorino is available to fill the void, but the top of the lineup will be significantly less potent with only one speedster to wreak havoc at the plate and on the base paths. Chase Utley is also a question mark. The five-time all-star’s right knee patellar tendinitis will cause him to start the year on the disabled list. The Phillies’ injury report has Utley’s status as “out indefinitely” which translates to “we have no idea how long this guy is going to be out.” The heart of the Philly order is far less imposing without Utley. On a positive note for Philly fans, Ryan Howard cut his strikeout total down to a 157 last year which is his career low since his second year in the big leagues when he only started in 88 games (he still struck out 100 times that year). The Phillies cannot count on Utley and Rollins being in the lineup consistently throughout the year. And with Ryan Howard striking out more times than he gets a hit (yes that’s a real stat. Look it up!), opposing pitchers will have several holes and weak points to attack in the Phillies’ order.

            Speaking of pitching, the Phillies starters are undoubtedly dominant, effective, dirty, studly, unhittable, the list of adjectives could go on forever. BUT the Phillies’ bullpen is no knight in shining armor. Brad “Lights Out” Lidge is scheduled to be the closer in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, the 34-year-old hurler will also start the season on the disabled list due to tendonitis in his throwing arm’s bicep. The closing duties will then be lent to either Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras. I’ll start with Madson. Although the 6’6” righty has shown flashes of brilliance, his short stints as a closer in the past have not produced good results. Last year Madson recorded 5 saves but also blew 5 saves. Two years ago he only converted 10 out of 16 save opportunities. Madson’s save percentage is not awful, but at the same time in a divisional race that could be decided by a mere game or two, each save is crucial. Madson has yet to prove he can be a consistently dominant closer. Jose Contreras is as equally unproven in the closer role. In the 8 years Contreras has spent in the big leagues, he has only been a full time reliever for one year. Not to mention the guy is 39 years old. Unless Jose develops an unbelievable cutter (Mariano Rivera- 41) or a devastating changeup (Trevor Hoffman- 42 when he retired), I can’t see him being very successful in the closer role.

            One part of the equation that will help the Phillies is their cupcake of a first month of the season. The first 27 games the Phillies have is like getting in a fight with Care Bear. Read the following stat carefully. If you combine last year’s record of each team the Phillies play the first month of the season and take out the 7 games against the Braves and Padres, the Phillies’ opponents in the first 30 days of the season are a combined 80 games under 500. If you add the Braves and Padres, Phillies’ opponents the first month are still 42 games under 500. The Phillies should be able to finish the first month with a respectable record despite no All-Star second baseman and essentially no closer. If the Phillies come out of the Care Bear brawl with some cuts and bruises, my point will be proven by the start of May. The Braves have a chance.

            Those are the reason’s the Phillies may struggle. Here are the reasons the Braves will thrive. Dan Uggla is one of the best off-season acquisitions of the year. The Braves were in dire need of middle-of-the-order power. In Uggla’s first five years in the Majors, he has averaged over 30 homeruns and 93 RBIs. Chipper Jones may be the face of the franchise but he is no longer going to be the main run producer in Atlanta. Despite his outstanding Spring, Braves fans cannot count on Chipper being in the lineup day-in and day-out. The switch-hitting third baseman has only played in over 135 games one time the last seven seasons. Chipper is still one of the best switch-hitters to ever play the game and he will still be a threat in the middle of the lineup.

Now let’s get to the other positive aspects of the Braves lineup. Jason Heyward ( .277, 18 HR, 72 RBI) is one of the biggest up and comers in the league. Despite a sore thumb that plagued him the majority of the year, Heyward put up numbers to make him second in the Rookie of the Year voting. Heyward, Jones, and Uggla make up a potent heart of the order. And let’s not forget about perennial All-Star catcher Brian McCann. McCann has won the Silver Slugger award 4 out of the last 5 seasons. The supporting cast can hold its own as well. Martin Prado has hit over 300 with over 35 doubles the last two years (voted to the All-Star team last year). The 21 year-old first baseman, Freddi Freeman, has incredible upside. Freeman hit 319 with 18 homeruns in 124 games with AAA Gwinnett. If Nate McClouth and Alex Gonzalez have anything that closely resembles respectable numbers, the Braves will have an outstanding offense.

The Braves may have a great offense but we all know that pitching and defense is what paves the road to the playoffs. The Braves have an extremely talented pitching staff that extends deeper than the starting rotation. The obvious strength of the Braves pitching staff is the starting rotation. They may not have the big name, big contract guys that play in Philadelphia, but the numbers speak for themselves. Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Mike Minor combined to have an ERA of 3.41 last year. The Braves team ERA was 3.53 which was good for third in the national league. Atlanta returns the majority of their bullpen minus the veteran southpaw closer Billy Wagner. Either Johnny Venters or Craig Kimbrel will close games for the Braves. Venters is a 26 year-old left hander that throws absolute gas in addition to a slider that is virtually unhittable for lefties. Venters finished 2010 with a microscopic 1.95 ERA. Kimbrel throws equally as hard but from the right side. Kimbrel only threw 20 innings for the Braves last year but only gave up one earned run. The 22 year old has electric stuff and a closer’s presence.

The Phillies and Braves are without a doubt the top two teams in the NL East, but I will shed some very quick light on the other three teams in the division. The New York Mets are an organization on the verge of implosion. They already had to borrow money from the league to keep the organization afloat. On the bright side for New Yorkers, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are both back. Reyes has a chance at having a great year. Beltran on the other hand is no longer the speedy outfielder that has the perfect combination of speed and power at the plate. Beltran is now an aged ball player with bad knees. Overall, the Mets don’t have enough fire power or pitching to keep up.

The Marlins will be a fun team to watch. Their outstanding farm system always produces young, talented players. Mike Stanton is a man-child that’s going to produce some amazing numbers. Josh Johnson will also be one of the top pitchers in the league. In the end, the Marlins may be fun to watch but their lack of depth will keep them out of the race.

The Nationals… well, they’re the Washington Nationals. They have spent the last three years in the National League East cellar and they better get comfortable. Despite obtaining Jason Werth, the Nationals are not going to turn around their 69-93 season in one year. Once the Nationals are out of the race (which might be in August), they will call up the Washington savior, Bryce Harper, to try to boost ticket sales. That is of course if Harper is having success in the minors (early reports say Harper has struggled this Spring. Weird! Who would have expected that one?)

In the end, the Braves and Phillies are the two teams in the race for the NL East. Both are outstanding teams with incredibly talented rosters. Analysts and fans will almost all choose the Phillies to capture the division, and it may be more likely to rain for a week straight in sunny Southern California than for the Braves to finish on top of the Phillies. But I’m calling for something a little different. I’m taking the 9.6% chance that the Braves will win the NL East for my OPENING DAY BOLD PREDICTION. 

NO THANKS. I'LL TAKE ANOTHER BANDWAGON

One of the biggest prospects in all of sports is the Washington National’s 18 year-old phenom, Bryce Harper. Harper signed a $9.9 million contract over 5 years, the biggest contract in Major League history for a non-pitcher coming out of the draft. Before I get into the meat of my thoughts, let me preface my views by saying Bryce Harper is an amazing talent. Harper’s talents and physical qualities make him any scout’s dream. That being said, I am going to wait a little bit longer before I jump on the Bryce Harper bandwagon. Most people I talk to have Harper hitting in the middle of the National’s order and breaking the homerun record before the kid takes one swing in a big league game.

            Here’s what I see when I look at Harper’s swing: a ridiculous amount of power with a MAX EFFORT SWING. If you have a chance, youtube hitters like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, or Chase Utley. All of these guys have an amazing amount of power but also have smooth, fluid swings that are seemingly effortless. If you really want to see an effortless yet explosive swing, youtube Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey may have had the prettiest left handed swing to ever slice through the air and connect with a baseball. Harper on the other hand looks like he may pull an oblique every time he lashes his bat through the zone. A max effort swing, aside from being less-aesthetically pleasing, presents problems for power hitters. But is it fair to compare an 18 year-old kid to some of the best hitters in the game like Pujols and A-Rod? ABSOLUTELY, IT’S FAIR! Bryce Harper is not your average 18 year-old who is getting used to being able to get into rated R movies by himself and buying tobacco without the help of his older friends for the first time! Bryce Harper is a $9.9 million investment! So yes, I’m being critical.

By the way, did the Nationals strike gold when playing in the National League East cellar the last three years? Washington is shelling out all kinds of cash to these young prospects. Remember when I said Harper’s $9.9 million contract was the most expensive contract for any non-pitcher coming out of the draft? Guess who signed the most expensive contract for a PITCHER out of the draft. Stephen Strasburg signed a $14.1 million contract for 4 years making the highest paid player in baseball that had (at that time) never thrown one pitch professionally. Besides Harper and Strasburg’s incredible talent at such a young age, they have one other commonality between them: their agent Scott Boras. Boras is a super-agent with the reputation of sucking every last cent out of an organization for a player’s contract. Dealing with Boras is like when you’re playing pickup basketball with your 5’8” to 6’1” friends and in walks the 6’6” guy who is redshirting on the local college basketball team. No matter how good you think your pick-up team is, the big guy is going to do whatever he wants on the court. Boras is going to do whatever he wants in the meeting room. Just to further make my point, before Harper set the contract record for a positional player coming out of the draft, Mark Teixeira was paid the most for any drafted, positional rookie ($9.5 million for 4 years). Mark Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras. 

Back to the swing, despite Harper’s ferocious swings, he struck out twice in his Spring Training debut. Both strikeouts were swinging. And both strikeouts were on changeups. A changeup to a left-handed hitting power guy is like a free throw to Shaquille O’Neal. (You would think after 18 years in the league, he would figure out how to make those. It is called a FREE throw). Changeups are often the toughest pitch for young hitters to adjust to. The reason? Pitchers usually do not develop solid changeups until they reach the professional level. Young hitters have never seen good changeups before. A hitter like Bryce Harper is even more susceptible to swing and miss when a pitcher pulls the string. He is so geared up to hit a fastball 658 feet that he does not give himself a chance to recognize a changeup when it’s thrown.

            A few guys I played with in college now play professional baseball. One of the pitchers I played with, who is now in the Orioles organization, talked to me about the amazing hand-eye coordination of the Dominican players. He said Dominicans could time up a 120 mph fastball but throw them a curveball and they have no chance. Bryce Harper has a similar issue. The upside about this problem is where the flaw lies. The flaw is in the approach, not the ability. If Harper can change his hitting style from chaos to a controlled aggression, he has a chance to be a phenomenal hitter. Some experts would say you cannot take away the aggressive approach from such a talented offensive player. I agree. I am not suggesting removing the aggressive nature from his swing, simply to channel it.

Granted, the only swings I have seen Harper take are the ones they show on Sportscenter and of course the unforgettable 500-foot blast at Tropicana Field (with an aluminum bat) that was made famous by youtube. BUT from what I have seen, it seems that Harper is on his way to being an all or nothing hitter. Honestly, there is nothing wrong with being an all or nothing hitter. Carlos Pena has made a good living out of it. The last three seasons, Pena has averaged over 32 homeruns with over 160 strikeouts. Only 47% of Pena’s hits with the Rays the last three years have been singles. Over half of his hits are extra-base hits (30% of his hits are homeruns). Swinging for the fences is a lucrative business. Pena’s three year contract with the Rays earned him over $8 million per year. Fun fact, Carlos Pena is represented by none other than Scott Boras. The irony!

The main point I am trying to make is that Bryce Harper is athletic enough, talented enough, and young enough to make the necessary adjustments and become the type of hitter he wants to be. Does he want to have the grace of a Griffey (future Hall of Famer) or the violently wild yet lucrative thrash of a Pena? Ask me in a few years and I may have the answer. As for now, when the Bryce Harper-lovers drive by and ask me if I want to hop on, I’ll say: No thanks. I’ll take another bandwagon.

LET COMMON SENSE AVAIL

I was listening to Mike and Mike in the Morning when they started discussing a Louisville cheerleader who nearly cost the Cardinals the game against Pittsburg by receiving a technical foul. Here’s the situation. Louisville (#16) is playing Pittsburg (#4) at home in a huge Big East matchup. Louisville is up by 3 with less then 20 seconds to go in the game. Pitt misses a shot, which Louisville rebounds and takes the length of the court and dunks in the final seconds pushing the score to 62-57 in favor of the Cardinals. The entire arena erupts in celebration although there is still 0.5 seconds remaining on the clock. One of the Louisville cheerleaders goes out onto the court and throws the ball into the air with excitement. The officials call a technical foul on the cheerleader, which gives Pittsburg two free throws. Ashton Gibbs hits both shots from the charity stripe and Pitt still has possession with the score now 62-59. With only 0.5 seconds remaining on the clock, Pittsburg misses the potential game-tying three and loses 62-59. The Louisville cheerleader very nearly caused overtime by going onto the court.

            Those are the facts. Here is my opinion: hey Mr. Official, ARE YOU KIDDING ME! I realize the pep-squad captain should not have gone onto the court but let’s try to understand the situation. Pittsburg had no legitimate chance to come back at that point in the game (half of a second left on the clock). I watched the video. After the dunk, the only Pitt player on that side of the court was the one who was going to inbound the ball. Pittsburg knew they were done. Louisville knew they had won. The Fat Lady was singing UNTIL the official had to step in, completely ignore common sense, and call a technical foul. If there were 5, 6, 7 seconds left in the game (an actual legitimate chance for Pittsburg to come back), I could absolutely understand giving a technical, but not in this situation. Two highly ranked teams in the Big East battling it out for 40 minutes and an official nearly determines the ending. That should not happen.

            The Louisville game made me think of other occasions in sports when an official ignored common sense and stepped in to alter the outcome of an important game. The more I thought about it, the more I realized the lack of common sense is an increasing problem in officials, especially collegiate officials. You may remember three years ago in college baseball when #8 Texas A&M played #6 Missouri in an important Big 12 matchup. Texas A&M was hitting in a tied 9th inning with 2 outs and runners on second and third. Missouri decided to intentionally walk the hitter to load the bases. During the intentional walk, the field umpire called a balk on the pitcher for not coming to a complete stop before throwing the pitch. By definition, the pitcher was guilty of a balk. By competitive standards and common sense, the umpire was an idiot! It was an intentional walk! There was no reason for an umpire to get involved.

            In a more recent example, Kansas State played Syracuse in this year’s Pinstripe Bowl. Syracuse was winning 36-28 when K-State drove down the field at the end of the game. Adrian Hilburn caught a touchdown pass to bring Kansas within 2 points. While in the endzone, Hilburn gave a quick salute to the crowd and ran back to the sideline to celebrate with his team. The official flagged Hilburn for excessive celebration. K-State then had to attempt the two-point conversion from the 18-yard line instead of the 3-yard line. Needless to say, Syracuse stopped the attempted conversion and won the game 36-34. Mr. Official, use common sense! Do not become part of the game when it is not necessary and more importantly, do not contribute to the outcome of a game when it is completely unnecessary!

            There is nothing more frustrating for fans or for players than when an official becomes extremely visible during competition. Nobody likes it when 43 fouls are called during a basketball game. Nobody likes it when flags are thrown for holding on every play during a football game. And nobody likes it when an umpire goes out of his way to get confrontational with a player or coach. The best officials are the ones who are not noticed during competition.

I realize the officials in the three cases I just mentioned made the correct call according to the rulebook, but look at that type of situation from another perspective. Is a person guilty of speeding when he or she is rushing a family member to the hospital because of a life and death illness? According to speed limit laws, the person is guilty, but there is not a judge in the world that would force someone to pay a fine in that situation. Common sense is key. It’s like when you’re playing spades. The three cards already played are the ace of clubs, queen of clubs, and jack of clubs. You play the two of spades and take the book. For those of you who don’t play spades, a spade trumps all other suits. Common sense trumps rules at the end of athletic competition.

Maybe I am just blowing steam because I realize what it is like to be battling your heart out in competition when an official steps in and tries to make the right call but severely ruins the game. Officials have tough jobs, but that does not excuse them for not using common sense. If I was the commissioner of all sports, my first order of business would be to rewrite every major sport’s rule book. Rule number 1: LET COMMON SENSE AVAIL.

INTRODUCTION

My name is Aaron Vargas. I’m a senior baseball player at Carson-Newman College in Tennessee, and I’m extremely passionate about sports. I always seem to have an opinion about the latest controversy and hot topics in the sports world, so a few friends convinced me to start a blog (probably so I stop bothering them with all my comments). I’m most passionate about baseball so that’s what most of my topics will be about but I’ll write the occasional blog about other sports and also about my biggest passion in life: my faith. I hope my readers get some entertainment out of the blogs. Fair warning before you start to read, I am extremely well versed in the language of sarcasm. The blogs will be slightly more than “sprinkled” with sarcastic comments. Enjoy!

COME ON ALBERT!

The first topic I want to discuss is Albert Pujols. The latest news stories have revealed Albert Pujols wants $30 million per year making him the highest paid player in baseball. Come on Albert! I realize he is a man-beast at the plate and has hit more homeruns in his first ten seasons than any other player in history BUT let’s be realistic. St. Louis is not a large market city when compared to New York or Boston. The Cardinals are not going to be able to hand out that kind of cash no matter how good you are. If Albert wants that kind of paycheck, he needs to have an hour long special on ESPN where he finally reveals at the end that he’s going to “take his talents to the Big Apple” (yes, that was a rip at LeBron James). Be realistic Albert, unless Mark Cuban is thinking about buying the Cardinals, they can’t pay that kind of money.

            Beyond realistic reasons for not grossly overpaying Albert Pujols, a $30 million a year paycheck is not good for baseball. White Sox GM Ken Williams said it best when he spoke out against the potential Pujols contract. Williams told Comcast SportsNet, “For the game’s health as a whole, when we’re talking about $30 million players, I think it’s asinine.” Williams is absolutely right. No player is worth that much money.

            But let’s play the “what-if” game and say Cardinals management sells their soul and gives Pujols $30 million a year (3/10 of a billion dollars over 10 years). The precedent has now been set for prime-time players to have essentially no limitations when searching for new contracts. It is already hard enough for small market teams to keep their big guns, but after the signing of a $30 million contract, it will be nearly impossible for small market teams to keep their home-grown superstars. Teams like the Royals or Orioles have no chance at competing. Once their players have any kind of above-average success, those players will head out to the cities that will play them the disgustingly high figures.

One of the best parts about the game of baseball is the fact that (comparatively speaking) broke teams with zero or very few superstars have a chance to compete and make it to the playoffs. If these teams get hot enough at the right time, they can even make it to the World Series and win a championship i.e. the San Francisco Giants. I have all the respect in the world for teams like the Minnesota Twins, Florida Marlins, and the Atlanta Braves. These teams draft and DEVELOP their players. If you watch a Twins, Marlins, or Braves game, I guarantee you will see no less than 5 players that came straight up from the farm system with that organization. These teams value their farm systems as assets to their future not assets to a future blockbuster trade. The more often these $20, $25, $30 million contracts are signed, the closer baseball will come to losing its purity. Maybe it already has, but I’d like to think baseball still has a chance. One thing I will say, baseball does not want to become like the NBA where there only 4 teams in the league that have ANY chance at winning the Finals. There’s a reason no one watches the NBA until the playoffs unless the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, or Magic are matched up with each other. Fans don’t want to watch blowouts. NBA players are more concerned with the color of their next Ferrari than playing defense during the regular season…. But I’m getting off topic. The main point: almost every(I won’t say all- sorry Kansas City) team has a chance at going to the playoffs and competing for a World Series. The more these gaudy contracts are signed and the more times superstars go to the huge market teams, the less likely small market teams are to be competitive. Baseball fans do not want a top heavy league. Every fan, deep down inside, roots a little bit for the underdog. We like Cinderella stories. No one is a fan of Goliath. We all like David… well, except maybe for Yankee fans!

        Ken Williams is right. $30 million for one player is bad for baseball. So once again I say, COME ON ALBERT!