OPENING DAY BOLD PREDICTION

March Madness coming to a close, the extended hours of daylight, and winter finally making its merciful exit can only mean one thing: Baseball Opening Day! The six month, 162-game marathon is less than one week away. Forget birthdays, Halloween, Christmas, or New Years; Opening Day is my favorite holiday. No more discussion of big player contracts or expectations of rookie phenoms (for the moment). It’s time to talk about the teams and which ones will get through the first 162 games and be lucky enough to play a few more in October.

I started writing this blog with the intention to preview each of the divisions in the big leagues and pick each division’s winner. I started with the National League East and found myself so engaged with this division that I didn’t want to delve into the matchups in other portions of the Majors. The NL East may be the most intriguing divisions in baseball. It’s because of two teams and here is why.

NL EAST

            It would be impossible to discuss the NL East without mentioning the 1-2-3-4 punch that is the Phillies starting rotation. Many fans and analysts believe the Phillies bought their ticket to October with the signing of Cliff Lee. Frankly, that’s a hard point to argue. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels can all be legitimately described as “aces.” Joe Blanton, the fifth starter, is kind of like the backup quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts (yeah, I don’t know his name either). The backup’s job is to hold field goals and extra points and maybe hold Peyton’s helmet every now and then. His job is not unimportant but it does go unnoticed. As long as Blanton’s win-loss record isn’t as gaudy as 18-3 or as morbid as 3-18, his work this season will be skimmed over faster than the written articles in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition.

            You would be as safe predicting the Phillies winning the NL East as you would be predicting it’s NOT going to rain in Southern California. As for me, I see storm clouds rolling into the Los Angeles area. LA, on average, receives rainfall 35 days per year (9.6% of 365 days). I see this prediction having a 9.6% chance of being correct: the Atlanta Braves will win the NL East and push the Phillies to a Wild Card spot and here’s why:

The Phillies are getting old. The average age of the Phillies’ positional starters is 32 years old. By normal societal standards, 32 is still extremely young. By Major League Baseball standards, 32 years old is considered, at best, post-prime years. The Major League season is a physical and emotional grind that few people can truly appreciate. As a 22 year old kid, my body gets tired and sore after a 50 game college season. Imagine the aches and pains a 30-plus year old man feels after playing 162 games in 180 days! The Phillies will wear down.

             The Phillies aren’t quite old enough to throw in any arthritis jokes, but the “seasoned veterans” have had injury problems in the past. Jimmy Rollins is still a talented player, but he is not the same dominant force that won the NL MVP award in 2007. Rollins has failed to hit over 250 the past two years. Last year’s struggles were due mainly to the aging shortstop’s hamstring and foot injuries that limited him to 88 games. If Jimmy Rollins can’t serve in the catalyst spot due to injury, Shane Victorino is available to fill the void, but the top of the lineup will be significantly less potent with only one speedster to wreak havoc at the plate and on the base paths. Chase Utley is also a question mark. The five-time all-star’s right knee patellar tendinitis will cause him to start the year on the disabled list. The Phillies’ injury report has Utley’s status as “out indefinitely” which translates to “we have no idea how long this guy is going to be out.” The heart of the Philly order is far less imposing without Utley. On a positive note for Philly fans, Ryan Howard cut his strikeout total down to a 157 last year which is his career low since his second year in the big leagues when he only started in 88 games (he still struck out 100 times that year). The Phillies cannot count on Utley and Rollins being in the lineup consistently throughout the year. And with Ryan Howard striking out more times than he gets a hit (yes that’s a real stat. Look it up!), opposing pitchers will have several holes and weak points to attack in the Phillies’ order.

            Speaking of pitching, the Phillies starters are undoubtedly dominant, effective, dirty, studly, unhittable, the list of adjectives could go on forever. BUT the Phillies’ bullpen is no knight in shining armor. Brad “Lights Out” Lidge is scheduled to be the closer in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, the 34-year-old hurler will also start the season on the disabled list due to tendonitis in his throwing arm’s bicep. The closing duties will then be lent to either Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras. I’ll start with Madson. Although the 6’6” righty has shown flashes of brilliance, his short stints as a closer in the past have not produced good results. Last year Madson recorded 5 saves but also blew 5 saves. Two years ago he only converted 10 out of 16 save opportunities. Madson’s save percentage is not awful, but at the same time in a divisional race that could be decided by a mere game or two, each save is crucial. Madson has yet to prove he can be a consistently dominant closer. Jose Contreras is as equally unproven in the closer role. In the 8 years Contreras has spent in the big leagues, he has only been a full time reliever for one year. Not to mention the guy is 39 years old. Unless Jose develops an unbelievable cutter (Mariano Rivera- 41) or a devastating changeup (Trevor Hoffman- 42 when he retired), I can’t see him being very successful in the closer role.

            One part of the equation that will help the Phillies is their cupcake of a first month of the season. The first 27 games the Phillies have is like getting in a fight with Care Bear. Read the following stat carefully. If you combine last year’s record of each team the Phillies play the first month of the season and take out the 7 games against the Braves and Padres, the Phillies’ opponents in the first 30 days of the season are a combined 80 games under 500. If you add the Braves and Padres, Phillies’ opponents the first month are still 42 games under 500. The Phillies should be able to finish the first month with a respectable record despite no All-Star second baseman and essentially no closer. If the Phillies come out of the Care Bear brawl with some cuts and bruises, my point will be proven by the start of May. The Braves have a chance.

            Those are the reason’s the Phillies may struggle. Here are the reasons the Braves will thrive. Dan Uggla is one of the best off-season acquisitions of the year. The Braves were in dire need of middle-of-the-order power. In Uggla’s first five years in the Majors, he has averaged over 30 homeruns and 93 RBIs. Chipper Jones may be the face of the franchise but he is no longer going to be the main run producer in Atlanta. Despite his outstanding Spring, Braves fans cannot count on Chipper being in the lineup day-in and day-out. The switch-hitting third baseman has only played in over 135 games one time the last seven seasons. Chipper is still one of the best switch-hitters to ever play the game and he will still be a threat in the middle of the lineup.

Now let’s get to the other positive aspects of the Braves lineup. Jason Heyward ( .277, 18 HR, 72 RBI) is one of the biggest up and comers in the league. Despite a sore thumb that plagued him the majority of the year, Heyward put up numbers to make him second in the Rookie of the Year voting. Heyward, Jones, and Uggla make up a potent heart of the order. And let’s not forget about perennial All-Star catcher Brian McCann. McCann has won the Silver Slugger award 4 out of the last 5 seasons. The supporting cast can hold its own as well. Martin Prado has hit over 300 with over 35 doubles the last two years (voted to the All-Star team last year). The 21 year-old first baseman, Freddi Freeman, has incredible upside. Freeman hit 319 with 18 homeruns in 124 games with AAA Gwinnett. If Nate McClouth and Alex Gonzalez have anything that closely resembles respectable numbers, the Braves will have an outstanding offense.

The Braves may have a great offense but we all know that pitching and defense is what paves the road to the playoffs. The Braves have an extremely talented pitching staff that extends deeper than the starting rotation. The obvious strength of the Braves pitching staff is the starting rotation. They may not have the big name, big contract guys that play in Philadelphia, but the numbers speak for themselves. Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Mike Minor combined to have an ERA of 3.41 last year. The Braves team ERA was 3.53 which was good for third in the national league. Atlanta returns the majority of their bullpen minus the veteran southpaw closer Billy Wagner. Either Johnny Venters or Craig Kimbrel will close games for the Braves. Venters is a 26 year-old left hander that throws absolute gas in addition to a slider that is virtually unhittable for lefties. Venters finished 2010 with a microscopic 1.95 ERA. Kimbrel throws equally as hard but from the right side. Kimbrel only threw 20 innings for the Braves last year but only gave up one earned run. The 22 year old has electric stuff and a closer’s presence.

The Phillies and Braves are without a doubt the top two teams in the NL East, but I will shed some very quick light on the other three teams in the division. The New York Mets are an organization on the verge of implosion. They already had to borrow money from the league to keep the organization afloat. On the bright side for New Yorkers, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are both back. Reyes has a chance at having a great year. Beltran on the other hand is no longer the speedy outfielder that has the perfect combination of speed and power at the plate. Beltran is now an aged ball player with bad knees. Overall, the Mets don’t have enough fire power or pitching to keep up.

The Marlins will be a fun team to watch. Their outstanding farm system always produces young, talented players. Mike Stanton is a man-child that’s going to produce some amazing numbers. Josh Johnson will also be one of the top pitchers in the league. In the end, the Marlins may be fun to watch but their lack of depth will keep them out of the race.

The Nationals… well, they’re the Washington Nationals. They have spent the last three years in the National League East cellar and they better get comfortable. Despite obtaining Jason Werth, the Nationals are not going to turn around their 69-93 season in one year. Once the Nationals are out of the race (which might be in August), they will call up the Washington savior, Bryce Harper, to try to boost ticket sales. That is of course if Harper is having success in the minors (early reports say Harper has struggled this Spring. Weird! Who would have expected that one?)

In the end, the Braves and Phillies are the two teams in the race for the NL East. Both are outstanding teams with incredibly talented rosters. Analysts and fans will almost all choose the Phillies to capture the division, and it may be more likely to rain for a week straight in sunny Southern California than for the Braves to finish on top of the Phillies. But I’m calling for something a little different. I’m taking the 9.6% chance that the Braves will win the NL East for my OPENING DAY BOLD PREDICTION. 

NO THANKS. I'LL TAKE ANOTHER BANDWAGON

One of the biggest prospects in all of sports is the Washington National’s 18 year-old phenom, Bryce Harper. Harper signed a $9.9 million contract over 5 years, the biggest contract in Major League history for a non-pitcher coming out of the draft. Before I get into the meat of my thoughts, let me preface my views by saying Bryce Harper is an amazing talent. Harper’s talents and physical qualities make him any scout’s dream. That being said, I am going to wait a little bit longer before I jump on the Bryce Harper bandwagon. Most people I talk to have Harper hitting in the middle of the National’s order and breaking the homerun record before the kid takes one swing in a big league game.

            Here’s what I see when I look at Harper’s swing: a ridiculous amount of power with a MAX EFFORT SWING. If you have a chance, youtube hitters like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, or Chase Utley. All of these guys have an amazing amount of power but also have smooth, fluid swings that are seemingly effortless. If you really want to see an effortless yet explosive swing, youtube Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey may have had the prettiest left handed swing to ever slice through the air and connect with a baseball. Harper on the other hand looks like he may pull an oblique every time he lashes his bat through the zone. A max effort swing, aside from being less-aesthetically pleasing, presents problems for power hitters. But is it fair to compare an 18 year-old kid to some of the best hitters in the game like Pujols and A-Rod? ABSOLUTELY, IT’S FAIR! Bryce Harper is not your average 18 year-old who is getting used to being able to get into rated R movies by himself and buying tobacco without the help of his older friends for the first time! Bryce Harper is a $9.9 million investment! So yes, I’m being critical.

By the way, did the Nationals strike gold when playing in the National League East cellar the last three years? Washington is shelling out all kinds of cash to these young prospects. Remember when I said Harper’s $9.9 million contract was the most expensive contract for any non-pitcher coming out of the draft? Guess who signed the most expensive contract for a PITCHER out of the draft. Stephen Strasburg signed a $14.1 million contract for 4 years making the highest paid player in baseball that had (at that time) never thrown one pitch professionally. Besides Harper and Strasburg’s incredible talent at such a young age, they have one other commonality between them: their agent Scott Boras. Boras is a super-agent with the reputation of sucking every last cent out of an organization for a player’s contract. Dealing with Boras is like when you’re playing pickup basketball with your 5’8” to 6’1” friends and in walks the 6’6” guy who is redshirting on the local college basketball team. No matter how good you think your pick-up team is, the big guy is going to do whatever he wants on the court. Boras is going to do whatever he wants in the meeting room. Just to further make my point, before Harper set the contract record for a positional player coming out of the draft, Mark Teixeira was paid the most for any drafted, positional rookie ($9.5 million for 4 years). Mark Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras. 

Back to the swing, despite Harper’s ferocious swings, he struck out twice in his Spring Training debut. Both strikeouts were swinging. And both strikeouts were on changeups. A changeup to a left-handed hitting power guy is like a free throw to Shaquille O’Neal. (You would think after 18 years in the league, he would figure out how to make those. It is called a FREE throw). Changeups are often the toughest pitch for young hitters to adjust to. The reason? Pitchers usually do not develop solid changeups until they reach the professional level. Young hitters have never seen good changeups before. A hitter like Bryce Harper is even more susceptible to swing and miss when a pitcher pulls the string. He is so geared up to hit a fastball 658 feet that he does not give himself a chance to recognize a changeup when it’s thrown.

            A few guys I played with in college now play professional baseball. One of the pitchers I played with, who is now in the Orioles organization, talked to me about the amazing hand-eye coordination of the Dominican players. He said Dominicans could time up a 120 mph fastball but throw them a curveball and they have no chance. Bryce Harper has a similar issue. The upside about this problem is where the flaw lies. The flaw is in the approach, not the ability. If Harper can change his hitting style from chaos to a controlled aggression, he has a chance to be a phenomenal hitter. Some experts would say you cannot take away the aggressive approach from such a talented offensive player. I agree. I am not suggesting removing the aggressive nature from his swing, simply to channel it.

Granted, the only swings I have seen Harper take are the ones they show on Sportscenter and of course the unforgettable 500-foot blast at Tropicana Field (with an aluminum bat) that was made famous by youtube. BUT from what I have seen, it seems that Harper is on his way to being an all or nothing hitter. Honestly, there is nothing wrong with being an all or nothing hitter. Carlos Pena has made a good living out of it. The last three seasons, Pena has averaged over 32 homeruns with over 160 strikeouts. Only 47% of Pena’s hits with the Rays the last three years have been singles. Over half of his hits are extra-base hits (30% of his hits are homeruns). Swinging for the fences is a lucrative business. Pena’s three year contract with the Rays earned him over $8 million per year. Fun fact, Carlos Pena is represented by none other than Scott Boras. The irony!

The main point I am trying to make is that Bryce Harper is athletic enough, talented enough, and young enough to make the necessary adjustments and become the type of hitter he wants to be. Does he want to have the grace of a Griffey (future Hall of Famer) or the violently wild yet lucrative thrash of a Pena? Ask me in a few years and I may have the answer. As for now, when the Bryce Harper-lovers drive by and ask me if I want to hop on, I’ll say: No thanks. I’ll take another bandwagon.